Working Paper: NBER ID: w22892
Authors: Francois Gerard; Miikka Rokkanen; Christoph Rothe
Abstract: The key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that the distribution of potential outcomes varies smoothly with the running variable around the cutoff. In many empirical contexts, however, this assumption is not credible; and the running variable is said to be manipulated in this case. In this paper, we show that while causal effects are not point identified under manipulation, they remain partially identified under a general model that covers a wide range of empirical patterns. We derive sharp bounds on causal parameters for both sharp and fuzzy designs under our general model, and show how additional structure can be used to further narrow the bounds. We use our methods to study the disincentive effect of unemployment insurance on (formal) reemployment in Brazil, and show that our bounds remain informative, despite the fact that manipulation has a sizable effect on our estimates of causal parameters.
Keywords: Regression Discontinuity; Causal Inference; Unemployment Insurance; Brazil
JEL Codes: C14; C21; C31; J65
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| unemployment insurance (UI) take-up (J65) | covered UI duration (C41) |
| manipulation of the running variable (C29) | biased estimates of causal parameters (C51) |
| manipulation of the running variable (C29) | causal parameter estimates (C20) |