Working Paper: NBER ID: w22862
Authors: Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates
Abstract: We examine the distributional effects of changes in local air pollution from driving electric vehicles in the United States. We employ an econometric model to estimate power plant emissions and an integrated assessment model to value damages in air pollution from both electric and gasoline vehicles. Using the locations of currently registered electric vehicles, we find that people living in census block groups with median income greater than about $65,000 receive positive environmental benefits from these vehicles while those below this threshold receive negative environmental benefits. Asian and Hispanic residents receive positive environmental benefits, but White and Black residents receive negative environmental benefits. In multivariate analyses, environmental benefits are positively correlated with income and urban measures, conditional on racial composition. In addition, conditional on income and urbanization, separate regressions find environmental benefits to be positively related with Asian and Hispanic block-group population shares, negatively correlated with White share, and uncorrelated with Black share. Environmental benefits tend to be larger in states offering purchase subsidies. However, for these states, an increase in subsidy size is associated with a decrease in created environmental benefits.
Keywords: Electric Vehicles; Air Pollution; Distributional Effects; Environmental Benefits
JEL Codes: H23; Q4; Q5
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Electric Vehicle Adoption (R48) | Environmental Benefits (Q52) |
| Income > $65,000 (D31) | Positive Environmental Benefits from Electric Vehicles (Q56) |
| Income < $65,000 (D19) | Negative Environmental Benefits from Electric Vehicles (F64) |
| Asian and Hispanic Population Shares (J11) | Positive Environmental Benefits (Q56) |
| White Population Share (J79) | Negative Environmental Benefits (Q52) |
| Larger Electric Vehicle Purchase Subsidies (R48) | Increased Electric Vehicle Adoption (R48) |
| Larger Electric Vehicle Purchase Subsidies (R48) | Decreased Environmental Benefits (Q51) |
| Environmental Benefits from Electric Vehicles (R41) | More Even Distribution Across Income Groups (D39) |
| Gasoline Vehicles (L92) | Disproportionate Harm to Lower-Income Populations (I14) |