Working Paper: NBER ID: w22859
Authors: Steve Gibbons; Stephan Heblich; Esther Lho; Christopher Timmins
Abstract: Shale gas has grown to become a major new source of energy in countries around the globe. While its importance for energy supply is well recognized, there has also been public concern over potential risks such as damage to buildings and contamination of water supplies caused by geological disturbance from the hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’) extraction process. Although commercial development has not yet taken place in the UK, licenses for drilling were issued in 2008 implying potential future development. This paper examines whether public fears about fracking are evident in changes in house prices in areas that have been licensed for shale gas exploration. Our estimates suggest differentiated effects. Licensing did not affect house prices but fracking the first well in 2011, which caused two minor earthquakes, did. We find a 2.7-4.1 percent house price decrease in the area where the earthquakes occurred. Robustness checks confirm our findings.
Keywords: shale gas; house prices; fracking; seismic activity
JEL Codes: Q42; Q5; Q51
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Shale gas licensing (L71) | House prices (R31) |
| Fracking-induced seismic activity (L71) | House prices (R31) |
| Public fear of fracking-induced seismic activity (L71) | House prices (R31) |
| Seismic events (G14) | House prices (R31) |
| Distance from earthquake site (R39) | House prices (R31) |