Past Performance and Procurement Outcomes

Working Paper: NBER ID: w22814

Authors: Francesco Decarolis; Giancarlo Spagnolo; Riccardo Pacini

Abstract: Reputational incentives may be a powerful mechanism for improving supplier performance and limiting the perverse effect of price competition on contract execution. We analyze a unique experiment run by a large utility company in Italy which introduced a new vendor rating system scoring its suppliers' past performance and linking it to the award of future contracts. We study responses in both price and performance to the announcement of the switch from price-only to price-and-rating auctions. Average performance improves from 25 percent to 90 percent of the audited parameters. Improvements involve all parameters and suppliers, are long-lasting (for at least 10 years after the initial experiment) and are reflected in higher service quality by the utility. Contract prices do not significantly change overall, but we find evidence of lower prices right after the announcement when suppliers compete to win contracts to get scored, and of higher prices, once they have established a good reputation. We then argue that supplier moral hazard is the main force behind our findings. The main takeaway from this study is that the gains from curtailing supplier moral hazard may be higher than those from always bolstering price competition, and that a reputational mechanism based on objective past performance can be a powerful tool to achieve this goal.

Keywords: public procurement; supplier performance; reputational incentives; auctions; moral hazard

JEL Codes: D44; D47; D82; H54; H57; I18; K12; L22; L74


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
introduction of the vendor rating system (L81)increase in compliance rates (H26)
increase in compliance rates (H26)improvement in compliance (L15)
introduction of the vendor rating system (L81)changes in auction prices (D44)
initial competition (L13)decrease in prices (E31)
reputation-building efforts (M14)increase in prices (E31)
supplier moral hazard (L14)observed changes in compliance and pricing (D49)

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