Working Paper: NBER ID: w22783
Authors: Daron Acemoglu; Ufuk Akcigit; William Kerr
Abstract: Technological progress builds upon itself, with the expansion of invention in one domain propelling future work in linked fields. Our analysis uses 1.8 million U.S. patents and their citation properties to map the innovation network and its strength. Past innovation network structures are calculated using citation patterns across technology classes during 1975-1994. The interaction of this pre-existing network structure with patent growth in upstream technology fields has strong predictive power on future innovation after 1995. This pattern is consistent with the idea that when there is more past upstream innovation for a particular technology class to build on, then that technology class innovates more.
Keywords: Innovation; Patents; Technological Progress
JEL Codes: D85; O31; O32; O33; O34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| upstream technological innovation (O36) | future innovation in that class (O39) |
| expected patenting levels (O38) | actual patenting levels (O34) |
| upstream patenting variation (O36) | aggregate variation in patenting levels across technologies (O39) |