Working Paper: NBER ID: w22690
Authors: David M. Cutler; Wei Huang; Adriana Lleras-Muney
Abstract: Using data covering over 100 birth-cohorts in 32 countries, we examine the short- and long-term effects of economic conditions on mortality. We find that small, but not large, booms increase contemporary mortality. Yet booms from birth to age 25, particularly those during adolescence, lower adult mortality. A simple model can rationalize these findings if economic conditions differentially affect the level and trajectory of both good and bad inputs into health. Indeed, air pollution and alcohol consumption increase in booms. In contrast, booms in adolescence raise adult incomes and improve social relations and mental health, suggesting these mechanisms dominate in the long run.
Keywords: economic conditions; mortality; birth cohorts; GDP; public health
JEL Codes: H51; I1; I38; J10; N10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic conditions (E66) | mortality (I12) |
| Adverse economic conditions early in life (J79) | later adult mortality (J26) |
| Conditions during adolescence (J13) | later adult mortality (J26) |
| Small economic booms (E32) | mortality (I12) |
| Large economic booms (N12) | mortality (I12) |
| Pollution during economic booms (Q53) | harmful long-term effects on health (I12) |
| Alcohol consumption during economic booms (E32) | harmful long-term effects on health (I12) |
| Favorable early life conditions (I31) | higher lifetime incomes (J17) |
| Higher lifetime incomes (J17) | lower adult mortality (I12) |
| Government spending (H59) | mitigate impact of economic conditions on health (I14) |