Working Paper: NBER ID: w2263
Authors: David Card
Abstract: This paper presents evidence on two aspects of strike activity associated with the renegotiation of union contracts: the effects of contract characteristics on dispute probabilities; and the effects of lagged strike outcomes on the incidence and duration of subsequent disputes. The empirical results show that strike probabilities are higher following a longer contract, and lower in limited reopening situations. Strike probabilities are also higher in summer and fall than in winter and spring. Finally, strike probabilities are significantly affected by lagged strike outcomes. Relative to a peaceful settlement, strike probabilities are 10 percentage points higher following a strike of two weeks or less, and 5 to 7 percentage points lower following a longer dispute.
Keywords: strike activity; collective bargaining; contract characteristics; labor disputes
JEL Codes: J51; J52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| contract characteristics (L14) | strike probabilities (J52) |
| longer contracts (L14) | strike probabilities (J52) |
| limited reopening situations (F41) | strike probabilities (J52) |
| expiration month of preceding contract (G13) | strike probabilities (J52) |
| strike of less than 14 days (J52) | strike probabilities (J52) |
| strike longer than 14 days (C41) | strike probabilities (J52) |