Working Paper: NBER ID: w22521
Authors: Bjorn Lindgren
Abstract: The objective is to review the evidence on (a) ageing and health and (b) the demand for health- and social services among the elderly. Issues are: does health status of the elderly improve over time, and how do the trends in health status of the elderly affect the demand for health- and elderly care? It is not a complete review, but it covers most of recent empirical studies.\n \nThe reviewed literature provides strong evidence that the prevalence of chronic disease among the elderly has increased over time. There is also fairly strong evidence that the consequences of disease have become less problematic due to medical progress: decreased mortality risk, milder and slower development over time, making the time with disease (and health-care treatment) longer but less troublesome than before. Evidence also suggests the postponement of functional limitations and disability. Some of the reduction in disability can be attributed to improvements in treatments of chronic diseases, but it is also due to the increased use of assistive technology, accessibility of buildings, etc. The results indicate that the ageing individual is expected to need health care for a longer period of time than previous generations but elderly care for a shorter.
Keywords: life expectancy; health trends; elderly care; demand for care
JEL Codes: H51; I1; I38; J11; J14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| prevalence of chronic diseases (I12) | medical progress (I19) |
| medical progress (I19) | increased longevity (D15) |
| increased longevity (D15) | longer periods of healthcare treatment (I11) |
| improvements in assistive technologies (O39) | reduced functional limitations (I14) |
| reduced functional limitations (I14) | overall healthcare demand (I11) |
| chronic disease prevalence (I12) | healthcare utilization (I11) |
| socioeconomic status (P36) | healthcare utilization (I11) |
| lifestyle changes (I12) | healthcare utilization (I11) |
| advancements in medical technology (O33) | healthcare utilization (I11) |