The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges

Working Paper: NBER ID: w22511

Authors: Will Dobbie; Jacob Goldin; Crystal Yang

Abstract: Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pre-trial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pre-trial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that being detained before trial significantly increases the probability of a conviction, primarily through an increase in guilty pleas. Pre-trial detention has no detectable effect on future crime, but decreases pre-trial crime and failures to appear in court. We also find suggestive evidence that pre-trial detention decreases formal sector employment and the receipt of employment- and tax-related government benefits. We argue that these results are consistent with (i) pre-trial detention weakening defendants' bargaining position during plea negotiations, and (ii) a criminal conviction lowering defendants' prospects in the formal labor market.

Keywords: pretrial detention; bail system; employment; conviction rates; future crime

JEL Codes: J24; J70; K14; K42

Causal Claims

Cause	Effect
Being assigned to a lenient judge (K40)	Pretrial release (K41)
Pretrial detention (K40)	Probability of conviction (K14)
Pretrial detention (K40)	Probability of pleading guilty (K40)
Pretrial detention (K40)	Pretrial crime (K42)
Pretrial release (K41)	Probability of failing to appear in court (K40)
Pretrial release (K41)	Likelihood of rearrest prior to case disposition (K40)
Pretrial detention (K40)	Formal sector employment (J46)
Pretrial release (K41)	Probability of filing a tax return (H26)
Pretrial detention (K40)	Receipt of employment-related government benefits (J68)
Pretrial detention (K40)	Future crime rates (K42)