Working Paper: NBER ID: w22487
Authors: Steven D. Levitt
Abstract: Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This paper reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), those who make a change (regardless of the outcome of the coin toss) report being substantially happier two months and six months later. This correlation, however, need not reflect a causal impact. To assess causality, I use the outcome of a coin toss. Individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are much more likely to make a change and are happier six months later than those who were told by the coin to maintain the status quo. The results of this paper suggest that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.
Keywords: decision making; happiness; randomized field experiment; coin toss
JEL Codes: D12; D81
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| coin toss outcome (C25) | decision to make a change (D91) |
| decision to make a change (D91) | happiness (I31) |
| coin toss outcome (C25) | happiness (I31) |
| decision to make a change (D91) | happiness (6 months later) (Y60) |