Working Paper: NBER ID: w22395
Authors: Melissa Dell; Pablo Querubin
Abstract: This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced non-communist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions, which pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes towards the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a hearts and minds oriented approach.
Keywords: Vietnam War; Military Intervention; Counterinsurgency; Causal Effects
JEL Codes: F35; F51; F52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Military strategy (Army) (H56) | Increased VC activity (G24) |
| Military strategy (Army) (H56) | Diminished local governance (H10) |
| Bombing (H56) | Increase in military and political activities of the Viet Cong (VC) (H56) |
| Bombing (H56) | Weakening of local governance (H77) |
| Bombing (H56) | Reduction in tax collection (H26) |
| Bombing (H56) | Reduction in access to primary education (I24) |
| Bombing (H56) | Reduction in participation in civic organizations (D71) |
| Security score (F52) | Bombing (H56) |