Working Paper: NBER ID: w22352
Authors: Silda Nikaj; Joshua J. Miller; John Tauras
Abstract: We examine an untested hypothesis that posits that null results in early studies examining the economic impacts of smoking bans were driven by sample selection. Early adopters could better absorb the shock of bans, but among worse selected late adopters bans would adversely impact bars and restaurants. We exploit variation in the timing of ban institution among Texas municipalities and track their impact over time. We find similar adjustments trajectories between late and early adopters, but late adopters appear unaffected by bans in the long-term. Consistent with earlier studies, bans do not significantly affect bar and restaurant sales or establishment level alcohol tax expenditures.
Keywords: Smoke-Free Ordinances; Economic Impact; Texas
JEL Codes: I18; K32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| smoke-free ordinances (K32) | bar and restaurant sales (L66) |
| smoke-free ordinances (K32) | establishment-level alcohol tax expenditures (H29) |
| early adopters of smoking bans (L83) | higher sales prior to adoption (D40) |
| late adopters of smoking bans (L83) | no long-term negative impacts (F69) |
| smoking bans (K32) | neutral effect on tax expenditures over time (H29) |