Working Paper: NBER ID: w2222
Authors: Ray C. Fair
Abstract: In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.
Keywords: voting behavior; economic events; presidential elections; GNP growth; inflation
JEL Codes: D72; E32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| growth rate of real per capita GNP (O40) | vote share for the incumbent party (D72) |
| inflation rate (E31) | vote share for the incumbent party (D72) |
| growth rate of real per capita GNP (6 months prior) (E01) | vote share for the incumbent party (D72) |
| economic performance of the current party in power (P27) | voting decisions (D72) |
| historical performance of the opposition party (D72) | voting decisions (D72) |