Working Paper: NBER ID: w22214
Authors: Todd Gerarden; W. Spencer Reeder; James H. Stock
Abstract: Coal mined on federally managed lands accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. coal consumption and 13% of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions. The U.S. Department of the Interior is undertaking a programmatic review of federal coal leasing, including the climate effects of burning federal coal. This paper studies the interaction between a specific upstream policy, incorporating a carbon adder into federal coal royalties, and downstream emissions regulation under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). After providing some comparative statics, we present quantitative results from a detailed dynamic model of the power sector, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). The IPM analysis indicates that, in the absence of the CPP, a royalty adder equal to the social cost of carbon could reduce emissions by roughly 3/4 of the emissions reduction that the CPP is projected to achieve. If instead the CPP is binding, the royalty adder would: reduce the price of tradeable emissions allowances, produce some additional emissions reductions by reducing leakage, and reduce wholesale power prices under a mass-based CPP but increase them under a rate-based CPP. A federal royalty adder increases mining of non-federal coal, but this substitution is limited by a shift to electricity generation by gas and renewables.
Keywords: coal; carbon adder; Clean Power Plan; emissions regulation; federal coal program
JEL Codes: Q38; Q54; Q58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| carbon adder (Y70) | emissions reductions (Q52) |
| carbon adder (Y70) | price of tradable emissions allowances (Q31) |
| price of tradable emissions allowances (Q31) | emissions reductions (Q52) |
| carbon adder (Y70) | mining of nonfederal coal (L72) |
| mining of nonfederal coal (L72) | electricity generation from natural gas and renewables (L94) |
| carbon adder (Y70) | overall emissions outcomes (Q52) |
| carbon adder (Y70) | royalty receipts (D33) |
| CPP (C88) | emissions reductions (Q52) |