Working Paper: NBER ID: w22190
Authors: Efraim Benmelech; Esteban F. Klor
Abstract: This paper provides the first systematic analysis of the link between economic, political, and social conditions and the global phenomenon of ISIS foreign fighters. We find that poor economic conditions do not drive participation in ISIS. In contrast, the number of ISIS foreign fighters is positively correlated with a country's GDP per capita and Human Development Index (HDI). In fact, many foreign fighters originate from countries with high levels of economic development, low income inequality, and highly developed political institutions. Other factors that explain the number of ISIS foreign fighters are the size of a country's Muslim population and its ethnic homogeneity. Although we cannot directly determine why people join ISIS, our results suggest that the flow of foreign fighters to ISIS is driven not by economic or political conditions but rather by ideology and the difficulty of assimilation into homogeneous Western countries.
Keywords: foreign fighters; ISIS; economic conditions; political conditions; social conditions
JEL Codes: H0; H56; K42; O52; O53
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| GDP per capita (O49) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| Human Development Index (HDI) (O15) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| size of Muslim population (J11) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| income inequality (D31) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| political rights (P26) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| economic development (O29) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| assimilation difficulties faced by Muslim immigrants (F22) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |
| ethnic homogeneity (J15) | number of ISIS foreign fighters (F22) |