Working Paper: NBER ID: w22181
Authors: Solomon M. Hsiang
Abstract: Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure effects of climate on social and economic outcomes. Because weather variation plays a large role in recent progress, I formalize the relationship between climate and weather from an econometric perspective and discuss their use as identifying variation, highlighting tradeoffs between key assumptions in different research designs and deriving conditions when weather variation exactly identifies the effects of climate. I then describe advances in recent years, such as parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterizing uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates to project the impact of future climate change. I conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges.
Keywords: climate; econometrics; social outcomes; economic outcomes
JEL Codes: C33; H84; I1; O13; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| climate (Q54) | social outcomes (I14) |
| weather realizations influenced by climate (Q54) | social outcomes (I14) |
| belief effects (G41) | social outcomes (I14) |
| climate (Q54) | beliefs about climate (Q54) |
| beliefs about climate (Q54) | behaviors (C92) |
| weather variation (Q54) | climate effects (Q54) |
| climate (Q54) | weather (Q54) |