Working Paper: NBER ID: w22178
Authors: Yi Che; Yi Lu; Justin R. Pierce; Peter K. Schott; Zhigang Tao
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office during the period examined being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.
Keywords: Trade liberalization; US elections; China; Democratic vote share; Voter turnout
JEL Codes: D72; F13; F16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased competition from China due to PNTR (F69) | Increase in share of votes for Democratic candidates (D79) |
| Increased competition from China due to PNTR (F69) | Increase in probability of a county being represented by a Democrat (D79) |
| Increased competition from China due to PNTR (F69) | Increase in voter turnout (K16) |
| Perceived disadvantage from trade (F14) | Support for Democratic candidates (D79) |
| Higher exposure to PNTR (F69) | Congressional Democrats support legislation limiting import competition (L49) |
| Higher exposure to PNTR (F69) | Congressional Democrats provide economic assistance (H84) |