Working Paper: NBER ID: w22108
Authors: Jason Long; Henry E. Siu
Abstract: We construct longitudinal data from the U.S. Census records to study migration patterns of those affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our focus is on the famous "Okie" migration of the Southern Great Plains. We find that migration rates were much higher in the Dust Bowl than elsewhere in the U.S. This difference is due to the fact that individuals who were typically unlikely to move (e.g., those with young children, those living in their birth state) were equally likely to move in the Dust Bowl. While this result of elevated mobility conforms to long-standing perceptions of the Dust Bowl, our other principal findings contradict conventional wisdom. First, relative to other occupations, farmers in the Dust Bowl were the least likely to move; this relationship between mobility and occupation was unique to that region. Second, out-migration rates from the Dust Bowl region were only slightly higher than they were in the 1920s. Hence, the depopulation of the Dust Bowl was due largely to a sharp drop in migration inflows. Dust Bowl migrants were no more likely to move to California than migrants from other parts of the U.S., or those from the same region ten years prior. In this sense, the westward push from the Dust Bowl to California was unexceptional. Finally, migration from the Dust Bowl was not associated with long-lasting negative labor market effects, and for farmers, the effects were positive.
Keywords: Dust Bowl; Migration; Economic Effects; Occupational Mobility
JEL Codes: J61; J62; N12; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Migration rates in the Dust Bowl (J60) | Migration rates in other regions of the U.S. during the 1930s (R23) |
| Unique individual characteristics (C91) | Higher migration rates in the Dust Bowl (J60) |
| Factors that usually inhibit migration (F22) | Migration rates in the Dust Bowl (J60) |
| Farmers (Q12) | Migration likelihood of farmers (J61) |
| Outmigration rates from the Dust Bowl (J60) | Outmigration rates in the 1920s (F22) |
| Dust Bowl migrants (J69) | Labor market outcomes of Dust Bowl migrants (J68) |
| Migration of farmers (J43) | Economic situation of farmers (Q12) |