Working Paper: NBER ID: w22079
Authors: Joachim Marti; John Buckell; Johanna Catherine Maclean; Jody L. Sindelar
Abstract: A small but rapidly growing percentage of the U.S. population uses e-cigarettes. Policymakers, especially the FDA, are concerned about their public health impact and thus are contemplating regulations. We provide empirical evidence to inform such policy choices. Specifically, we examine how the demand for e-cigarettes would vary across policy-relevant attributes: 1) health impact, 2) effectiveness in helping smokers quit, 3) bans in public places, and 4) price. We conduct an online discrete choice experiment of 1,669 adult smokers who select among combustible cigarettes and two types of e-cigarettes as attributes are varied. Using a conditional logit model we estimate smokers’ preferences across attributes. Then, using a latent class model, we identify types of smokers and conduct policy simulations separately by these types and for the full sample. In general, smokers value the attributes in the predicted directions and the demand for e-cigarettes tends to be motivated more by smokers’ health concerns than by price or smoking bans. The latent class model identifies three types of smokers, those who prefer combustible cigarettes (‘smokers’), e-cigarettes (‘vapers’), and using both (‘dual users’). We conclude that varying these policy-relevant attributes will have small, significant impacts on average, but with substantial heterogeneity by smoker type.
Keywords: e-cigarettes; smoking; discrete choice experiment; policy; health impact
JEL Codes: C35; I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| health concerns (I12) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |
| price (D41) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |
| public place bans (H76) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |
| effectiveness as a cessation aid (I12) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |
| smoker type (vapers) (L66) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |
| smoker type (dedicated smokers) (L66) | demand for combustible cigarettes (L66) |
| smoker type (dual users) (Y90) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |
| varying policy-relevant attributes (R28) | demand for e-cigarettes (R22) |