Working Paper: NBER ID: w22051
Authors: Christopher S. Carpenter; Chandler B. McClellan; Daniel I. Rees
Abstract: We provide the first analysis of the relationship between economic conditions and the use of illicit drugs other than marijuana. Drawing on US data from 2002-2013, we find mixed evidence with regard to the cyclicality of illicit drug use. However, there is strong evidence that economic downturns lead to increases in substance use disorders involving hallucinogens and prescription pain relievers. These effects are robust to a variety of specification choices and are concentrated among prime-age white males with low educational attainment. We conclude that the returns to spending on the treatment of substance use disorders are particularly high during economic downturns.
Keywords: Economic Conditions; Illicit Drug Use; Substance Use Disorders
JEL Codes: E32; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic downturns (F44) | increases in substance use disorders (I12) |
| state unemployment rate (J65) | likelihood of having a disorder involving analgesics (I12) |
| state unemployment rate (J65) | likelihood of having a disorder involving hallucinogens (I12) |
| economic conditions (E66) | substance use and disorders (I12) |
| economic downturns (F44) | countercyclical relationship for prime-age white males with low educational attainment (J79) |
| cyclicality of illicit drug use (E32) | mixed evidence overall (D91) |
| certain drugs like ecstasy (K14) | countercyclical pattern (E32) |
| LSD (Y60) | procyclical behavior (E32) |