Working Paper: NBER ID: w21937
Authors: Charles Courtemanche; Rusty Tchernis; Benjamin Ukert
Abstract: This paper aims to identify the causal effect of smoking on body mass index (BMI) using data from the Lung Health Study, a randomized trial of smoking cessation treatments. Since nicotine is a metabolic stimulant and appetite suppressant, quitting or reducing smoking could lead to weight gain. Using randomized treatment assignment to instrument for smoking, we estimate that quitting smoking leads to an average long- run weight gain of 1.8-1.9 BMI units, or 11-12 pounds at the average height. These results imply that the drop in smoking in recent decades explains 14% of the concurrent rise in obesity. Semi-parametric models provide evidence of a diminishing marginal effect of smoking on BMI, while subsample regressions show that the impact is largest for younger individuals, females, those with no college degree, and those in the lowest quartile of baseline BMI.
Keywords: smoking; obesity; BMI; causal effect; randomized trial
JEL Codes: I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Smoking cessation (I12) | BMI (I12) |
| Treatment assignment (C90) | Smoking cessation (I12) |
| Smoking cessation (I12) | Rise in obesity (I14) |
| Smoking (L66) | BMI (I12) |