Working Paper: NBER ID: w2187
Authors: Christina D. Romer
Abstract: The paper examines the official Commerce Department estimates of gross national product for 1909-1928 and finds that they are far inferior to the less commonly used Kendrick GNP estimates. The paper then derives a revised version of the Kendrick series that alters significantly the representation of annual movements in the Kendrick series before 1919. This endorsement of a revised Kendrick GNP series in place of the official Commerce Department estimates before 1929 suggests new interpretations of the effect of World War I on the American economy and the nature and cause of the depression of 1921.
Keywords: Gross National Product; World War I; Economic Fluctuations
JEL Codes: N11; N12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Kendrick series (A31) | better understanding of economic conditions (E66) |
| Kendrick series (A31) | smaller wartime boom in 1918-1919 (N42) |
| Kendrick series (A31) | less severe postwar recession in 1921 (N12) |
| wartime production (H56) | domestic production (D20) |
| supply and demand shocks in 1921 (N12) | price drops (D49) |
| supply and demand shocks in 1921 (N12) | unchanged output (C67) |