Working Paper: NBER ID: w21809
Authors: Richard H. Steckel; Garrett Senney
Abstract: When building major organs the fetus responds to signals via the placenta that forecast post-natal nutrition. A mismatch between expectations and reality creates physiological stress and elevates several noninfectious chronic diseases. Applying this concept, we investigate the historical origins of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the American South using rapid income growth from 1950 to 1980 as a proxy for socioeconomic forces that created unbalanced physical growth among southern children born after WWII. Using state-level data on income growth, smoking, obesity and education, we explain over 70% of the variance in current CVD mortality rates across the country.
Keywords: cardiovascular disease; socioeconomic factors; developmental origins hypothesis
JEL Codes: I15; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| socioeconomic growth (O54) | increased CVD mortality rates (I12) |
| socioeconomic growth (O54) | unbalanced physical growth in children (O40) |
| unbalanced physical growth in children (O40) | increased CVD mortality rates (I12) |
| socioeconomic growth (O54) | dietary changes (I12) |
| socioeconomic growth (O54) | lifestyle factors contributing to obesity (I12) |
| lifestyle factors contributing to obesity (I12) | increased CVD mortality rates (I12) |
| smoking (L66) | increased CVD mortality rates (I12) |
| obesity (I12) | increased CVD mortality rates (I12) |
| higher ratio of median household income in 1980 to that in 1950 (E25) | increased CVD mortality rates (I12) |