Working Paper: NBER ID: w21801
Authors: Giovanni Peri; Vasil Yasenov
Abstract: We apply the Synthetic Control Method to re-examine the labor market effects of the Mariel Boatlift, first studied by David Card (1990). This method improves on previous studies by choosing a control group of cities that best matches Miami’s labor market trends pre-Boatlift and providing more reliable inference. Using a sample of non-Cuban high-school dropouts we find no significant difference in the wages of workers in Miami relative to its control after 1980. We also show that by focusing on small sub-samples and matching the control group on a short pre-1979 series, as done in Borjas (2017), one can find large wage differences between Miami and control because of large measurement error.
Keywords: Mariel Boatlift; Synthetic Control Method; Labor Market Effects; Immigration; Wages
JEL Codes: J3; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Mariel Boatlift influx (F22) | wages of workers in Miami (J31) |
| Mariel Boatlift influx (F22) | unemployment rates in Miami (J64) |
| wages of workers in Miami (J31) | labor market outcomes for non-Cuban high school dropouts (J79) |
| unemployment rates in Miami (J64) | labor market outcomes for non-Cuban high school dropouts (J79) |
| Mariel Boatlift influx (F22) | employment for low-skilled non-Cubans in Miami (J68) |