Working Paper: NBER ID: w21789
Authors: Viktar Fedaseyeu; Erik Gilje; Philip E. Strahan
Abstract: Local interests change sharply after the energy booms that began in 2003, when hydraulic fracturing spurred extraction of formerly uneconomic oil and gas reserves. Support for conservative interests rises and Republican political candidates gain votes after booms, leading to a near doubling in the probability of a change in incumbency. All of this change occurs at the expense of Democrats. Voting records of U.S. House members from boom districts become sharply more conservative across a wide range of issues, including issues unrelated to energy policy. At the level of the individual, marginal candidates skew their voting behavior somewhat toward more conservative causes, but generally not enough to maintain power. Thus, even when the stakes are high and politicians risk losing power, ideology trumps ambition.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Shale booms (Q33) | electoral preferences (K16) |
| electoral preferences (K16) | political outcomes (D72) |
| Shale booms (Q33) | support for Republican candidates (K16) |
| support for Republican candidates (K16) | probability of incumbency change (D79) |
| Shale booms (Q33) | probability of Democrat losing incumbency (D72) |
| electoral preferences (K16) | voting records of House members (D72) |
| shifts in electoral preferences (D72) | changes in interest group ratings (D72) |
| electoral preferences (K16) | political attitudes of voters (D72) |
| Shale booms (Q33) | changes in voting behavior of individual politicians (D72) |