Working Paper: NBER ID: w21777
Authors: Stéphane Becuwe; Bertrand Blancheton; Christopher M. Meissner
Abstract: A large literature has documented an association between economic growth and export diversification. We study this question in France between 1836 and 1938. The period witnessed the onset of modern economic growth and sharp changes in the level of international competition. We use a new long term database on French foreign trade at a high level of disaggregation. At the dawn of the first Globalization, France appears to have specialized along Ricardian lines, exporting a handful of textile products in large quantities. There is a decrease in specialization from 1860 to World War I along the lines of modern studies. Changes in trade costs along with economic growth help explain the evolution of France’s comparative advantage. The decline of export concentration is associated with a chronic deficit in the balance of trade during the Belle Époque and the major part of the interwar period particularly after 1927.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F62; F63; N23; N73
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decline in export concentration (F14) | chronic trade deficit (F14) |
| lower international trade costs (F19) | changes in export diversification (F14) |
| economic growth (O49) | changes in export diversification (F14) |
| liberalization of trade policies (F13) | decline in specialization of French exports (F69) |
| GDP per capita rises (O49) | export diversification increases (F69) |
| export diversification increases (F69) | export diversification stabilizes or declines (F69) |