Working Paper: NBER ID: w21761
Authors: Ioana Marinescu
Abstract: Learning about marriage quality has been proposed as a key mechanism for explaining how the probability of divorce evolves with marriage duration, and why people often cohabit before getting married. I develop four theoretical models of divorce, three of which include learning. I use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation to test reduced form implications of these models. The data is inconsistent with models including a substantial amount of learning. On the other hand, the data is consistent with a model without any learning, but where marriage quality changes over time.
Keywords: divorce; learning; marriage quality; job loss
JEL Codes: J12; J63; J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| marriage duration (J12) | divorce hazard (J12) |
| job loss (J63) | probability of divorce (J12) |
| changes in marriage quality (J12) | divorce rates (J12) |
| job loss (J63) | divorce rates (J12) |
| job loss (J63) | divorce hazard (J12) |