Working Paper: NBER ID: w2173
Authors: David Card; Daniel Sullivan
Abstract: We present a variety of alternative estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for adult male participants in the 1976 Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) program. Our results suggest that CETA participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points. Classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on-the--job programs, although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are consistently positive. We also find that movements in and out of employment for the trainees and a control group of nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first-order Markov process, conditional on individual heterogeneity. In the context of this model, CETA participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment, and the probability of continuing employment.
Keywords: subsidized training programs; employment probabilities; CETA program; labor market; nonexperimental data
JEL Codes: J68; I38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| past employment status (J63) | future employment probabilities (J68) |
| CETA participation (F15) | probability of employment (J68) |
| classroom training programs (M53) | probability of employment (J68) |
| CETA participation (F15) | probability of moving into employment (J60) |
| CETA participation (F15) | probability of continuing employment (J63) |