Working Paper: NBER ID: w21622
Authors: Cristina Cattaneo; Giovanni Peri
Abstract: Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence the income of rural populations will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures increased emigration rates to urban areas and to other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of emigration to cities or to other countries, consistently with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies.
Keywords: migration; climate change; agricultural productivity; emigration; urbanization
JEL Codes: F22; Q1; R12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increasing temperatures (Q54) | Decreased emigration rates in very poor countries (F22) |
| Increasing temperatures (Q54) | Increased emigration rates in middle-income countries (F22) |
| Decreased agricultural productivity (Q11) | Decreased emigration rates in very poor countries (F22) |
| Decreased agricultural productivity (Q11) | Increased emigration rates in middle-income countries (F22) |
| Lower average GDP per person (O57) | Decreased emigration rates in very poor countries (F22) |
| Local growth in GDP per person (O49) | Increased emigration rates in middle-income countries (F22) |