Working Paper: NBER ID: w21547
Authors: William D. Nordhaus
Abstract: What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? The present study looks at a recently launched hypothesis, which I label Singularity. The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace of improvements cascade through the economy. The paper develops a growth model that features Singularity and presents several tests of whether we are rapidly approaching Singularity. The key question for Singularity is the substitutability between information and conventional inputs. The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.
Keywords: economic growth; singularity; artificial intelligence; information technology
JEL Codes: O30; O33; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological advancements (in computation and artificial intelligence) (O33) | Economic growth (O49) |
| High substitutability between information and conventional inputs (D89) | Economic growth accelerates sharply (O49) |
| Low substitutability between information and conventional inputs (D89) | Rapid improvements in information technology may not significantly impact economic growth (O49) |