Working Paper: NBER ID: w21480
Authors: Joel M. David; Ina Simonovska
Abstract: Firm-level stock returns exhibit comovement above that in fundamentals, and the gap tends to be higher in developing countries. We investigate whether correlated beliefs among sophisticated, but imperfectly informed, traders can account for the patterns of return correlations across countries. We take a unique approach by turning to direct data on market participants’ information - namely, real-time firm-level earnings forecasts made by equity market analysts. The correlations of firm-level forecasts exceed those of fundamentals and are strongly related to return correlations across countries. A calibrated information-based model demonstrates that the correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts leads to return correlations broadly in line with the data, both in levels and across countries - the correlation between predicted and actual is 0.63. Our findings have implications for market-wide volatility - the model-implied correlations alone can explain 44% of the cross-section of aggregate volatility. The results are robust to controlling for a number of alternative factors put forth by the existing literature.
Keywords: correlated beliefs; stock returns; market volatility; analyst forecasts
JEL Codes: D8; G12; G15; G17
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts (G17) | return correlations (C10) |
| correlation of beliefs (C10) | market-wide volatility (G10) |
| correlation of analyst forecasts (G17) | correlation of beliefs (C10) |
| correlation of beliefs (C10) | stock return correlations (G17) |
| correlation in fundamentals and signal errors (C10) | return correlations (C10) |