Working Paper: NBER ID: w21443
Authors: Petra Moser; Joerg Ohmstedt; Paul W. Rhode
Abstract: Patents are the main source of data on innovation, but there are persistent concerns that patents may be a noisy and biased measure. An important challenge arises from unobservable variation in the size of the inventive step that is covered by a patent. The count of later patents that cite a patent as relevant prior art – so called forward citations – have become the standard measure to control for such variation. Citations may, however, also be a noisy and biased measure for the size of the inventive step. To address this issue, this paper examines field trial data for patented improvements in hybrid corn. Field trials report objective measures for improvements in hybrid corn, which we use to quantify the size of the inventive step. These data show a robust correlation between citations and improvements in yields, as the bottom line measure for improvements in hybrid corn. This correlation is robust to alternative measures for improvements in hybrid corn, and a broad range of other tests.We also investigate the process, by which patents generate citations. This analysis reveals that hybrids that serve as an input for genetically-related follow-on inventions are more likely to receive self-citations (by the same firm), which suggests that self-citations are a good predictor for follow-on invention.
Keywords: patents; citations; innovation; hybrid corn; inventive step
JEL Codes: O30; O31; O34; Q16; Q55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| hybrids as inputs for follow-on inventions (O36) | self-citations (A14) |
| citations (A14) | quality of patents (L15) |
| citations (A14) | size of the inventive step (O30) |
| examiner behavior (K40) | citation practices (Y50) |
| strategic actions of patent applicants (O34) | citation counts (A14) |
| 1% increase in yields (Q16) | 0.7 to 0.8 additional citations (Y50) |