Working Paper: NBER ID: w21372
Authors: Matthew F. Cancian; Michael W. Klein
Abstract: We show a statistically significant and quantitatively meaningful decline in the intelligence of Marine Officers from 1980 to 2014 as measured by their scores on the General Classification Test (GCT) which has been shown to be a good predictor of success in the military. This contrasts with the increasing quality of enlisted personnel since 1973 when conscription ended. We argue that the source of this decline is the greater number of young Americans in college since Marine officers must have a four-year degree. The increasing diversity of the pool of incoming officers has not contributed to the decline in GCT scores.
Keywords: Military; Officer Quality; Intelligence; General Classification Test
JEL Codes: H56; J44
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increase in college participation rates (I23) | increase in the number of college graduates eligible to become officers (I23) |
| increase in the number of college graduates eligible to become officers (I23) | dilution of average intelligence of the incoming officer pool (J45) |
| demographic shifts among incoming officers (J45) | changes in GCT scores (C70) |
| increase in the number of college graduates eligible to become officers (I23) | decline in average GCT scores (C70) |
| expansion of the non-Hispanic college graduate pool (J79) | decline in average GCT scores (C70) |