Working Paper: NBER ID: w21213
Authors: Ewout Frankema; Jeffrey Williamson; Pieter Woltjer
Abstract: This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net barter terms of trade for five African regions, we show that Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom that was comparable to other parts of the ‘global periphery’ from the late 18th century up to the mid-1880s, with an exceptionally sharp price boom in the four decades before the Berlin conference (1845-1885). We argue that this commodity price boom changed the economic context in favor of a European scramble for Africa. We also show that the accelerated export growth after the establishment of colonial rule deepened Africa’s specialization in primary commodities, even though the terms of trade turned into a prolonged decline after 1885.
Keywords: African commodity trade; European scramble for Africa; 19th century economics; terms of trade; colonialism
JEL Codes: F10; O40; O55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| commodity price boom (Q33) | European scramble for Africa (N93) |
| improved terms of trade (F14) | European powers perceive greater profitability in colonization (F54) |
| European scramble for Africa (N93) | colonial rule (F54) |
| colonial rule (F54) | patterns of commodity trade specialization (F14) |
| colonial rule (F54) | Africa's reliance on primary commodities (O55) |
| commodity price boom (Q33) | long-term economic specialization trap for African economies (O55) |