Working Paper: NBER ID: w21157
Authors: Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Solomon M. Hsiang; Matthew J. Neidell
Abstract: We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on human capital, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals no statistically significant relationship between climate and human capital. This finding is consistent with the notion that adaptation, particularly compensatory behavior, plays a significant role in limiting the long run impacts from short run weather shocks.
Keywords: climate change; human capital; cognitive performance; temperature
JEL Codes: H41; I0; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Compensatory Behaviors (D91) | Mitigation of Long-term Impacts (F69) |
| Temperature (C29) | Cognitive Performance (D91) |
| Temperature > 26°C (Q54) | Mathematical Performance (C29) |
| Temperature (C29) | Reading Performance (Y50) |
| Short-run Weather Shocks (Q54) | Long-run Climate Effects (Q54) |