Working Paper: NBER ID: w21079
Authors: Cemal Eren Arbatli; Quamrul H. Ashraf; Oded Galor; Marc Klemp
Abstract: This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity, rather than fractionalization or polarization across ethnic groups, has been pivotal to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, the study demonstrates that population diversity, and its impact on the degree of diversity within ethnic groups, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary civil conflicts. The findings arguably reflect the contribution of population diversity to the non-cohesivnesss of society, as reflected partly in the prevalence of mistrust, the divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.
Keywords: population diversity; civil conflict; ethnic groups; interpersonal diversity; social cohesion
JEL Codes: D74; N30; N40; O11; O43; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increase in national population diversity (J11) | Increase in civil conflict outbreaks (D74) |
| Increase in national population diversity (J11) | Increase in likelihood of civil conflict incidence (F51) |
| Increase in national population diversity (J11) | Increase in likelihood of new civil conflict onset (F51) |
| Increase in ethnic population diversity (R23) | Increase in prevalence of conflicts (D74) |