Working Paper: NBER ID: w21062
Authors: Magnus Carlsson; Gordon B. Dahl; Danolof Rooth
Abstract: Far-right and far-left parties by definition occupy the fringes of politics, with policy proposals outside the mainstream. This paper asks how public attitudes about such policies respond once an extreme party increases their political representation at the local level. We study attitudes towards the signature policies of two parties in Sweden, one from the far right and one from the far left, using panel data from 290 municipal election districts. To identify causal effects, we compare otherwise similar elections where a party either barely wins or loses an additional seat. We estimate that a one seat increase for the far-right, anti-immigration party decreases negative attitudes towards immigration by 1.8 or 4.1 percentage points (depending on which national survey we use). Likewise, when a far-left, anti-capitalist party politician gets elected, opposition to a six hour workday rises by 2.5 percentage points. These changes are contrary to the two parties’ policy positions. Exploring possible mechanisms, we find evidence for higher politician turnover and a rise in negative newspaper coverage for the anti-immigration party. These findings demonstrate that political representation can cause an attitudinal backlash as fringe parties and their ideas are placed under closer scrutiny.
Keywords: far-right parties; far-left parties; policy attitudes; political backlash
JEL Codes: D72; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Election of a far-right anti-immigration party politician (Sweden Democrats) (D79) | Decrease in negative attitudes towards immigration (K37) |
| Gaining one additional seat for the Sweden Democrats (D79) | Decrease in negative attitudes towards immigration (K37) |
| Election of a far-left anti-capitalist party politician (Left Party) (P39) | Increase in opposition to a six-hour workday (J29) |