Working Paper: NBER ID: w21061
Authors: Eli Berman; Aila M. Matanock
Abstract: Research on insurgency has been invigorated this past decade by better data, improved methods, and the urgency of understanding active engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. This empiricists’ insurgency reinforces a classic literature on the essential role of civilians while challenging older theories about how they affect conflict outcomes. It provides a general framework describing “irregular” insurgencies (where government capacity exceeds rebel capacity), which is analytically cohesive and empirically tested using subnational data from multiple conflicts. The new research provides guidance on intervention design, including governance improvement, development programs, and rules of engagement. The design of interventions matters: some key evidence comes from measuring the effects of misguided policies. The framework may enable better conceived and implemented interventions, including foreign engagements with and without troop deployment, depending on the type of insurgency and mindful of political limitations. We position these findings in the literature, and highlight directions for future research, including legal aspects of countering insurgency.
Keywords: insurgency; governance; civilian behavior; counterinsurgency; information sharing
JEL Codes: F51; F52; H56; N76; N85; N87; O0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Service provision (L84) | Increased civilian cooperation (H56) |
| Increased civilian cooperation (H56) | Enhanced government forces' ability to control territory (H10) |
| Effective service provision by government (H11) | Reduced rebel violence (D74) |
| Reduced rebel violence (D74) | Increased risk of failure for rebels when they attack (D74) |
| Increased risk of failure for rebels when they attack (D74) | Decreased insurgent activity (F51) |
| Civilian casualties (H56) | Negative impact on civilian support for responsible side (H56) |
| Negative impact on civilian support for responsible side (H56) | Increased attacks against that side (D74) |
| Innovations facilitating anonymous tip sharing (O36) | Reduced rebel violence (D74) |
| Improved communication technology (L96) | Enhanced government capabilities against insurgents (H56) |