Working Paper: NBER ID: w20996
Authors: Joshua Goodman; Michael Hurwitz; Jonathan Smith
Abstract: Does access to four-year colleges affect degree completion for students who would otherwise attend two-year colleges? Admission to Georgia’s four-year public sector requires minimum SAT scores. Regression discontinuity estimates show that access to this sector increases four-year college enrollment and college quality, largely by diverting students from two-year colleges. Access substantially increases bachelor’s degree completion rates for these relatively low-skilled students. SAT retaking behavior suggests students value access to four-year public colleges, though perhaps less than they should. Our results imply that absolute college quality matters more than match quality and suggest potential unintended consequences of free community college proposals.
Keywords: college access; degree completion; SAT thresholds; regression discontinuity design
JEL Codes: I21; I23; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Making community colleges free (H49) | Students drawn away from four-year colleges (D29) |
| Students drawn away from four-year colleges (D29) | Overall degree completion rates (Y40) |
| Access to Georgia's four-year colleges (I23) | Probability of enrollment in any four-year college (I23) |
| Access to Georgia's four-year colleges (I23) | Quality of the college chosen (I23) |
| Access to Georgia's four-year colleges (I23) | Bachelor's degree completion rates for relatively low-skilled students (D29) |
| Missing the SAT thresholds (C24) | Lower enrollment in four-year colleges (I23) |
| Access to Georgia's four-year colleges (I23) | Rates of retaking the SAT (C29) |