Working Paper: NBER ID: w20950
Authors: Tinna Laufey Sgeirsdottir; Hope Corman; Kelly Noonan; Nancy Reichman
Abstract: This study uses individual-level longitudinal data from Iceland, a country that experienced a severe economic crisis in 2008 and substantial recovery by 2012, to investigate the extent to which the effects of a recession on health behaviors are lingering or short-lived and to explore trajectories in health behaviors from pre-crisis boom, to crisis, to recovery. Health-compromising behaviors (smoking, heavy drinking, sugared soft drinks, sweets, fast food, and tanning) declined during the crisis, and all but sweets continued to decline during the recovery. Health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fruit, fish oil, and vitamin/ minerals and getting recommended sleep) followed more idiosyncratic paths. Overall, most behaviors reverted back to their pre-crisis levels or trends during the recovery, and these short-term deviations in trajectories were probably too short-lived in this recession to have major impacts on health or mortality. A notable exception is for alcohol consumption, which declined dramatically during the crisis years, continued to fall (at a slower rate) during the recovery, and did not revert back to the pre-crisis upward trend during our observation period. These lingering effects, which directionally run counter to the pre-crisis upward trend, suggest that alcohol is a potential pathway by which recessions improve health and/or reduce mortality.
Keywords: health behaviors; recession; Iceland; longitudinal data; economic crisis
JEL Codes: D1; I1; J2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 2008 economic crisis (G01) | likelihood of smoking (I12) |
| 2008 economic crisis (G01) | binge drinking (I12) |
| 2008 economic crisis (G01) | consumption of fruit (E21) |
| 2008 economic crisis (G01) | consumption of sweets (E21) |
| 2008 economic crisis (G01) | health outcomes (I14) |