Working Paper: NBER ID: w20892
Authors: Charles J. Courtemanche; Joshua C. Pinkston; Christopher J. Ruhm; George Wehby
Abstract: A growing literature examines the effects of economic variables on obesity, typically focusing on only one or a few factors at a time. We build a more comprehensive economic model of body weight, combining the 1990-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System with 27 state-level variables related to general economic conditions, labor supply, and the monetary or time costs of calorie intake, physical activity, and cigarette smoking. Controlling for demographic characteristics and state and year fixed effects, changes in these economic variables collectively explain 37% of the rise in BMI, 43% of the rise in obesity, and 59% of the rise in class II/III obesity. Quantile regressions also point to large effects among the heaviest individuals, with half the rise in the 90th percentile of BMI explained by economic factors. Variables related to calorie intake – particularly restaurant and supercenter/warehouse club densities – are the primary drivers of the results.
Keywords: Obesity; Economic Factors; BMI; Public Health
JEL Codes: I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| changes in economic variables (E39) | rise in average BMI (I14) |
| changes in economic variables (E39) | rise in obesity (I12) |
| changes in economic variables (E39) | rise in Class III/II obesity (I12) |
| restaurant density (R30) | rise in BMI and obesity (I12) |
| supercenter/warehouse club density (L81) | rise in BMI and obesity (I12) |
| decline in blue-collar employment (F66) | rise in severe obesity (I12) |
| increase in food stamp spending (H53) | rise in severe obesity (I12) |
| economic factors (P42) | stronger influence on those severely obese (D91) |