Working Paper: NBER ID: w20878
Authors: Leila Agha; David Molitor
Abstract: Local opinion leaders may play a key role in easing information frictions associated with technology adoption. This paper analyzes the influence of physician investigators who lead clinical trials for new cancer drugs. By comparing diffusion patterns across 21 new cancer drugs, we separate correlated regional demand for new technology from information spillovers. Patients in the lead investigator's region are initially 36% more likely to receive the new drug, but utilization converges within four years. We also find that “superstar ” physician authors, measured by trial role or citation history, have broader influence than less prominent authors.
Keywords: technology adoption; cancer drugs; local opinion leaders; clinical trials
JEL Codes: I11; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Proximity to pivotal study authors (A14) | higher drug adoption rates (I12) |
| Higher adoption rates by physicians within the author's practice group (I11) | increased likelihood of receiving new drug (O36) |
| Higher adoption rates by physicians beyond the author's practice group (I11) | increased likelihood of receiving new drug (O36) |
| Influence of first authors (A14) | convergence in drug utilization rates over time (F62) |
| Lower initial adoption rates (L15) | greater influence from study authors (C92) |
| Local information environment (R53) | adoption and effectiveness of new cancer drugs (O36) |