The Effect of Unemployment Benefits on the Duration of Unemployment Insurance Receipt: New Evidence from a Regression Kink Design in Missouri, 2003-2013

Working Paper: NBER ID: w20869

Authors: David Card; Andrew Johnston; Pauline Leung; Alexandre Mas; Zhuan Pei

Abstract: We provide new evidence on the effect of the unemployment insurance (UI) weekly benefit amount on unemployment insurance spells based on administrative data from the state of Missouri covering the period 2003-2013. Identification comes from a regression kink design that exploits the quasi-experimental variation around the kink in the UI benefit schedule. We find that UI durations are more responsive to benefit levels during the recession and its aftermath, with an elasticity between 0.65 and 0.9 as compared to about 0.35 pre-recession.

Keywords: unemployment insurance; benefit elasticity; regression kink design

JEL Codes: J64; J65


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
Lower offer arrival rates or higher job destruction rates (J63)Responsiveness of unemployment durations to UI benefits (J65)
Longer UI potential durations during recession (J65)Responsiveness of unemployment durations to UI benefits (J65)
Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits (J65)Unemployment duration (J64)
Economic downturn (F44)Responsiveness of unemployment durations to UI benefits (J65)

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