Working Paper: NBER ID: w20836
Authors: Barry Eichengreen
Abstract: Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, averse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E00; N1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| A rise in global savings rates (F62) | lower investment rates (G31) |
| lower investment rates (G31) | lower real interest rates (E43) |
| decline in the relative price of investment goods (E22) | lower real interest rates (E43) |
| slower population growth (J11) | lower investment rates (G31) |
| lack of attractive investment opportunities (G31) | low investment levels (G31) |
| low investment levels (G31) | lower real interest rates (E43) |