Working Paper: NBER ID: w20801
Authors: Mark Hoekstra; Sandra Orozco-Aleman
Abstract: A critical immigration policy question is whether state and federal policy can deter undocumented workers from entering the U.S. We examine whether Arizona SB 1070, arguably the most restrictive and controversial state immigration law ever passed, deterred entry into Arizona. We do so by exploiting a unique data set from a survey of undocumented workers passing through Mexican border towns on their way to the U.S. Results indicate the bill’s passage reduced the flow of undocumented immigrants into Arizona by 30 to 70 percent, suggesting that undocumented workers from Mexico are responsive to changes in state immigration policy. In contrast, we find no evidence that the law induced undocumented immigrants already in Arizona to return to Mexico.
Keywords: illegal immigration; state law; deterrence
JEL Codes: J6; K37
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Arizona SB 1070 (K37) | immigration flows (F22) |
| federal injunction (L49) | immigration flows (F22) |
| Arizona SB 1070 (K37) | return to Mexico (F24) |
| state legal climates (K32) | locational decisions of new immigrants (J61) |
| Arizona SB 1070 (K37) | undocumented immigrants entering Arizona (K37) |