Working Paper: NBER ID: w20800
Authors: Joshua Angrist; David Autor; Sally Hudson; Amanda Pallais
Abstract: Does financial aid increase college attendance and completion? Selection bias and the high implicit tax rates imposed by overlapping aid programs make this question difficult to answer. This paper reports initial findings from a randomized evaluation of a large privately-funded scholarship program for applicants to Nebraska’s public colleges and universities. Our research design answers the challenges of aid evaluation with random assignment of aid offers and a strong first stage for aid received: randomly assigned aid offers increased aid received markedly. This in turn appears to have boosted enrollment and persistence, while also shifting many applicants from two- to four-year schools. Awards offered to nonwhite applicants, to those with relatively low academic achievement, and to applicants who targeted less-selective four-year programs (as measured by admissions rates) generated the largest gains in enrollment and persistence, while effects were much smaller for applicants predicted to have stronger post-secondary outcomes in the absence of treatment. Thus, awards enabled groups with historically-low college attendance to ‘level up,’ largely equalizing enrollment and persistence rates with traditionally college-bound peers, particularly at four-year programs. Awards offered to prospective community college students had little effect on college enrollment or the type of college attended.
Keywords: financial aid; college attendance; randomized evaluation; scholarship program
JEL Codes: H52; I21; I22; I23; I28; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Randomly assigned aid offers (F35) | Amount of financial aid received (I22) |
| Amount of financial aid received (I22) | Enrollment rates (I21) |
| Amount of financial aid received (I22) | Persistence rates (C41) |
| Randomly assigned aid offers (F35) | Enrollment rates (I21) |
| Randomly assigned aid offers (F35) | Four-year college enrollment (I23) |
| Randomly assigned aid offers (F35) | Sophomore enrollment (I23) |
| Randomly assigned aid offers (F35) | Community college enrollment (I23) |