Working Paper: NBER ID: w20680
Authors: Yiqun Chen; Frank Sloan
Abstract: This study investigates causal effects of changes in subjective probabilities of being pulled over and involved in accidents if driving while intoxicated on individuals’ drinking and driving choices. We also examine how hypothetical changes in perceptions of sanction severity affect drunk driving by experiments randomizing the harshness of punishments. We find that higher perceived risks of being pulled over and involved in accidents deter drinking and driving. However, deterrence is limited to persons who are alcohol addicted, lack of self-control over drinking, and are more impulsive. No deterrent effect of harsher legal punishments is found on individuals’ drunk driving choices.
Keywords: driving while intoxicated; risk perception; deterrence; subjective beliefs
JEL Codes: D04; D84; I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher perceived risks of being pulled over (R48) | Decrease in drinking and driving episodes (R48) |
| Higher perceived risks of being involved in accidents (R48) | Decrease in drinking and driving episodes (R48) |
| Alcohol addiction and impulsivity (D91) | Higher perceived risks of being pulled over (R48) |
| Alcohol addiction and impulsivity (D91) | Higher perceived risks of being involved in accidents (R48) |
| Harsher legal punishments (K40) | No significant change in drinking and driving behavior (R48) |