Working Paper: NBER ID: w20625
Authors: Emmanuel Saez; Gabriel Zucman
Abstract: This paper combines income tax returns with Flow of Funds data to estimate the distribution of household wealth in the United States since 1913. We estimate wealth by capitalizing the incomes reported by individual taxpayers, accounting for assets that do not generate taxable income. We successfully test our capitalization method in three micro datasets where we can observe both income and wealth: the Survey of Consumer Finance, linked estate and income tax returns, and foundations' tax records. Wealth concentration has followed a U-shaped evolution over the last 100 years: It was high in the beginning of the twentieth century, fell from 1929 to 1978, and has continuously increased since then. The rise of wealth inequality is almost entirely due to the rise of the top 0.1% wealth share, from 7% in 1979 to 22% in 2012--a level almost as high as in 1929. The bottom 90% wealth share first increased up to the mid-1980s and then steadily declined. The increase in wealth concentration is due to the surge of top incomes combined with an increase in saving rate inequality. Top wealth-holders are younger today than in the 1960s and earn a higher fraction of total labor income in the economy. We explain how our findings can be reconciled with Survey of Consumer Finances and estate tax data.
Keywords: wealth inequality; income tax data; capitalization method
JEL Codes: H2; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| rising top incomes (D33) | wealth concentration (D31) |
| high saving rates among the wealthy (D14) | wealth concentration (D31) |
| wealth concentration (D31) | rising top incomes (D33) |
| income inequality (D31) | wealth concentration (D31) |
| rising debts and stagnant incomes (H69) | bottom 90% wealth share decline (E25) |
| increased income inequality (D31) | higher capital income concentration (D33) |
| higher capital income concentration (D33) | exacerbated wealth inequality (D31) |