Working Paper: NBER ID: w20593
Authors: Lin Cui; Randall Walsh
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of residential foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime. To overcome confounding factors, a difference-in-difference research design is applied to a unique data set containing geocoded foreclosure and crime data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Results indicate that while foreclosure alone has no effect on crime, violent crime rates increase by roughly 19% once the foreclosed home becomes vacant -an effect that increases with length of vacancy. We find weak evidence suggesting a potential vacancy effect for property crime that is much lower in magnitude.
Keywords: foreclosure; vacancy; crime
JEL Codes: J18; R14; R3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| foreclosure (G33) | crime rates (K42) |
| vacancy (J63) | violent crime rates (K42) |
| vacancy duration (J63) | violent crime rates (K42) |
| vacancy (J63) | property crime rates (K42) |
| vacancy (J63) | crime rates (K42) |
| vacancy duration (J63) | violent crime peak (K42) |
| reoccupation (R33) | violent crime rates (K42) |