Working Paper: NBER ID: w20552
Authors: Chris Bidner; Patrick Francois; Francesco Trebbi
Abstract: A majority of the world democracies are far from the benchmark of representative democracy. This paper presents a model of political transitions based on a minimalist conception of the democratic state, i.e. a form of government solely characterized by competitive elections. We show that the model can produce dynamics of transition into democracy without requiring any role for redistribution or representation of voters, but solely based on interactions among the ruling elites. This allows the model to match several relevant stylized facts concerning the organization of new and consolidating democracies, weakly institutionalized countries, and hybrid regimes.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H11; P16; P48
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Competitive elections (D72) | transition from autocracy to minimalist democracy (D72) |
| Coup threats (D74) | hold elections (K16) |
| hold elections (K16) | maintain loyalty among insiders (L14) |
| maintain loyalty among insiders (L14) | reduce likelihood of violent power struggles (D74) |
| Respecting electoral outcomes (K16) | perceived as less of a tyrant (D73) |
| perceived as less of a tyrant (D73) | increases likelihood of re-election (D72) |
| Respect for election results (K16) | enhances legitimacy of the leader (D73) |
| enhances legitimacy of the leader (D73) | discourages coup attempts (D74) |
| Not respecting election results (K16) | classified as tyrants (Y40) |
| classified as tyrants (Y40) | diminishes chances of future electoral success (D72) |
| Leaders' beliefs about future elections (D79) | shape current decisions (D91) |